Kingdom MMA: UFC on FOX Sports 1 Main Card Predictions
by Ben Heather @benheather, Tommy Strong @Strong_tea and Jack Broadey @J3cK_b
This weekend is the launch of Fox Sports 1 in the USA and the UFC will be a massive part of the launch with the highlight being the UFC Fight Night 26 Shogun vs Sonnen. This card has been dubbed the best free to air (in the USA) card in MMA history. At first I was sceptical but now when you look down the fights that will take place on Saturday night you come to realise that this card is absolutely stacked!!
You just need to look at the names on show to realise how good this card is. Obviously you have Chael P Sonnen and Shogun Rua in the main event but when you look a bit further down and see names like Overeem, Faber and Pickett to name a few. On top of that you need to add in the always exciting Joe Lauzon and Matt Brown who I don't believe have ever been in boring fights.
With everything being said I believe the UFC has hit the nail on the head and I can't wait for Saturday night to witness the best free card in MMA history.
Below you can find the predictions for what some of the guys at Kingdom MMA expect to happen on Saturday night.
Chael Sonnen (27-13-1) vs Shogun Rua (21-7)
Jack: The five round factor of the main event could be key here. Can Sonnen keep Shogun on his back for five rounds? I'm not so sure he will need to. He will put him there enough for Shogun to become desperate and either tire or force a mistake. I think Shogun can hang around to see the end of the fight but I see Sonnen winning a relatively comfortable decision.
Prediction: Sonnen by Decision
Tommy: This is such a sick card! The fans will be in for a real treat here with so many 50/50 fights! So here goes my predictions:
I'll be pleased when we see Sonnen back at this natural weight, Middleweight. He just isn't a light heavyweight and size again will be the difference come Saturday night. 18 of Shoguns 21 victories have come via knockout and at some point I see him catching Sonnen and finishing him inside two rounds.
Prediction: Shogun by TKO Round 2
Ben: I think Sonnen has been criticised far too much about the fact he hasn't won a fight since he beat Bisping in Jan '12. Yes its now over 18 months since he last won but how many guys fight Anderson Silva and then Jon Jones.... not many guys will be coming out of those with even one win.
As for this fight I think Jack has summed it up perfectly. Shogun has not looked the same fighter recently, in my opinion Sonnen will be able to control the fight to begin with in the first couple of rounds and this will tire out Shogun. Then when it gets in to the championship rounds it will start to become easier for Sonnen.
Yes, if Shogun catches Sonnen he could easily end the fight but I don't see it happening.
Prediction: Sonnen by Unanimous Decision
Alastair Overeem (36-12-1) vs Travis Browne (14-1-1)
Jack: An intriguing battle. Overeem has to win to get back into contention. Browne is kind of an unknown quantity at this stage. He lost to Bigfoot Silva but that was due to him blowing his knee out. I quite like the way Browne matches up with Overeem and I will take him for the win.
Prediction: Browne by TKO Round 2
Tommy: Seeing Bigfoot knockout Overeem back in February still brings a smile to my face, though I don't see Overeem underestimating Travis Browne having learnt a harsh lesson last time out.
I really rate Browne but this isn't a great match up for him. I hope he wins , though I just don't see it.
Prediction: Overeem by TKO Round 3
Ben: I have been going back and forth with this fight, both fighters have the ability to finish the fight at any stage of the fight. However, after being embarrassed by Bigfoot in his last fight I believe "the Reem" will be coming in to this fight having put everything in to his camp to make sure he does not gas again.
That being said, I don't think it will be a decision. I see Overeem finishing the fight in the second round after picking apart Browne in the first.
Prediction: Overeem by TKO Round 2
Urijah Faber (28-6) vs Yuri Alcantara (28-4-1)
Jack: This is a great matchup on a card full of amazing fights. This being only a 3 round fight negates Faber's experience advantage. He should however have the overall advantage in this fight and he still seems hungry for UFC gold. It should be a close fight but I see Faber just edging it.
Prediction: Faber by Split Decision
Tommy: I'll keep this very short and sweet! Faber destroys anyone in the division except Cruz and Barao, this will be no different.
Prediction: Faber by a very one sided Unanimous Decision
Ben: I was disappointed when this fight was made. The fight I wanted to see was Faber vs Pickett and I am hoping with a win for both that we can still see that fight next. As for this fight as Tommy said I think Faber will be able to beat Alcantara in any area he wants.
If he wants a submission victory I believe he can pull it off or if he wants to beat him on his feet I am sure he can cruise to a decision victory.
Prediction: Faber by Unanimous Decision
Matt Brown (17-11) vs Mike Pyle (25-8-1)
Jack: This is a strange fight and could play out a number of ways. Brown and Pyle are both on really hot streaks right now and whilst Brown is getting the attention I'd argue Pyle has beaten the better competition and in better fashion. Brown fights in clusters on the feet whereas Pyle throws power shots. Should the fight hit the ground Pyle has a big advantage there. In a pick em fight I like the look of the underdog here.
Prediction: Pyle by Submission Round 1
Tommy: This fight has me licking my lips!! If you don't like this match up you shouldn't be anywhere near MMA. This has fight of the night written all over it! Brown has TKO/KO'd four of his last five opponents, Pyle has knocked out three of his last four.
Toss the coin and see where it lands on this one! Though I'm edging towards Brown taking a UD in a back and forth battle!
Prediction: Brown by Unanimous Decision
Ben: This is my prediction for KO of the night. I think Matt Brown will pick up yet another finish via KO. I expect him to come out quick like he did in his last fight against Jordan Mein and pressure Pyle before finding his range and finishing the fight in style.
Prediction: Brown by KO Round 1
Uriah Hall (7-3) vs John Howard (20-8)
Jack: Hall is the biggest favourite on the whole card. I can see why, but Howard is no mug. If he spots an opportunity he will take it. It will be interesting to see what tactics are employed by both men here.
Prediction: Hall by KO Round 1
Tommy: Uriah will be wanting to put the disappointment of the TUF 17 finale behind him and losing to Kelvin Gastelum in an awful performance we haven't been accustomed to.
Howard will have home advantage being a Boston born , and making his comeback to the UFC since being released in 2011. If Hall turns up like he did against Gastelum, I see Howard winning. Though I think that was a one off and we will see the best of Hall and getting him back in the winning column.
Prediction: Hall by KO Round 2
Ben: I'm going to go for the underdog in this fight again. I called Kelvin beating Uriah in the TUF Finale when everyone thought I was crazy and I am calling it again today.
I think the hype behind Hall from his days in the TUF house was crazy. Some people were even calling for him to jump straight from TUF to fighting Anderson.... Seriously what the fuck were these people thinking!! In the TUF house at no point was he tested, he didn't get put on his back and he certainly didn't come up against somebody with the same striking skills as Howard.
I feel its going to be a pretty decent fight but I believe Howard's experience will be able to get him a win in his hometown.
Prediction: Howard by Unanimous Decision
Joe Lauzon (22-8) vs Michael Johnson (12-8)
Jack: Lauzon is never in a dull fight, Johnson is prime to be submitted. Lauzon will walk away with yet another fight bonus.
Prediction: Lauzon by Submission Round 1
Tommy: Johnson coming into this fight on the back two losses is very much up against it facing Joe Lauzon. Lauzon is one of my favourite fighters to watch and rarely comes out of the octagon without a fight of the night or submission of the night award.
Six of Johnson's eight losses have come via submission, something that Lauzon excels at. This will be his undoing.
Prediction: Lauzon by Submission Round 2
Ben: Now let me ask you a question, if you had to pick one person to open up the main card on potentially the biggest UFC card ever who would it be? If Joe Lauzon is not one of the first names you would pick then I am shocked. Every single Joe Lauzon fight you can guarantee one thing and that is excitement. Win or lose you will know by the end of the fight Lauzon has given his all (and probably most of his blood)
Michael Johnson is in serious need of a victory and is fighting for more than just a win on Saturday night. The bit which will work against him more though is exactly the point Tommy made. 75% of Johnson's losses have come by being submitted. For this reason I think it will be a long night for Johnson before he gets caught in yet another submission.
Prediction: Lauzon by Submission Round 2
Now we will also predict a couple of important fights for the UK fans. These don't feature on the main card but are the last two prelim fights.
Brad Pickett (23-7) vs Michael McDonald (15-2)
Jack: This fight should have been on the main card. All the potential to be a barn burner and it really is a pick em. McDonald should have the edge standing but Pickett's movement and level changes are fantastic. He will try to mix it up constantly and keep McDonald guessing. This is my fight of the night pick. Both fighters will have there moments and I guess this will be difficult to score.
Prediction: McDonald by Split Decision
Tommy: I'm a little disappointed this hasn't made the main event, with both fighters at the top of their game so we are in for a barn burner here! My heart would love Pickett to win though my head rules on this one. I think McDonald just has a little to much for Pickett and it pains me to say that.
On this one I really really hope I'm wrong!
Prediction: McDonald by Unanimous Decision
Ben: Unlike the other two I am picking Brad here. I think he still wants to prove he can beat the best in the division and his two losses in the UFC are against Barao and Wineland. They are competing for the belt later this year and I see that driving Brad on thinking..... That should be me!!
I see Pickett come out swinging as he always does and I think the fight will carry on this way for the full three rounds. McDonald is a very game fighter and I hope he also does the same, if he does this will surely be the fight of the night. I am not sure if I think Pickett will get the finish but I really feel he will have enough to get the victory.
Prediction: Pickett by Unanimous Decision
Conor McGregor (13-2) vs Max Holloway (7-2)
Jack: The Irish sensation is back in action and I can't see him being troubled at all here. Holloway will try to keep this standing and that's a huge mistake. Brimage offered more in the stand up than Holloway does and he was dealt with easily. This looks like the UFC are trying to create a highlight reel for McGregor as they are really pushing him in anticipation of an upcoming Dublin card in 2014.
Prediction: McGregor by KO Round 1
Tommy: I've been outspoken about Conor aka hype train and I'm yet to believe in him. A win over a wrestler who decides to stand with a striker isn't the evidence I need to be convinced.
Holloway only being 21 has a bright future, he was very unlucky not to have got the decision win last time out when he fought Dennis Bermudez in May.
If Conor can take Holloway out in fashion, I might just buy a ticket and climb aboard the train! Though I think this will be a harder test for Conor than the odds suggest!
Prediction: Holloway by Unanimous Decision
Ben: I like watching Conor fight. I wouldn't go as far as saying I believe in all the hype that has been thrown around about him as I still feel he has not been tested against a top talent and I don't think that will happen again on Saturday night.
I like Max as a fighter and have enjoyed his fights too but I wouldn't say he is the finished article yet. I think Conor is the better fighter and I think it will be a fairly easy fight for Conor. If the fight makes the second round I will be very surprised.
What I am looking forward to though is that hopefully after a good win on Saturday night we could see Conor fight on the Manchester card against a serious contender. I would love to see the fight against the winner of Koch vs Poirier which takes place at the end of the month.
Prediction: McGregor by TKO Round 1
Our Predictions for Post Fight Bonuses are:
Fight of the Night - Pickett vs McDonald (Jack & Ben) Brown vs Pyle (Tommy)
KO of the Night - Conor McGregor (Jack) Uriah Hall (Tommy) Matt Brown (Ben)
Sub of the Night - Joe Lauzon (all)
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