Kingdom MMA: UFC Fight Night 35 Main Card Predictions
by Ben Heather @benheather and Sam Heard @SamHeard_
On Wednesday night the UFC goes back to home soil for the first event in the USA of 2014 and the fans are treated to some great matchmaking in most of the fights on this card. Which will lead to us all being able to watch some high calibre fighting..... even if it is on a school night.
A lot is on the line at the top of the card as well, both Luke Rockhold and Costa Philippou could put themselves in the mix with a win on Wednesday but more importantly a loss for either fighter would severely damage their reputation and chance at ever getting a shot at middleweight gold.
Below you can find the predictions for what some of the guys at Kingdom MMA expect to happen on Wednesday night.
Luke Rockhold (10-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC) vs Costas Philippou (12-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC)
Sam: I found the fact that Philippou had been given this main event given how disappointing he was in his last fight where he was dominated by Francis Carmont. Philippou is the sort of fighter who can beat the Jorge Rivera's and Riki Fukuda's of the world but as soon as he moves up the ladder to fighting tougher competition he falls short. Luke Rockhold can certainly be placed in this category of ‘tougher competition’. I fully expect Rockhold to have his way with Philippou here and beat him inside the distance. Rockhold has fought in five round fights multiple times while Philippou has not, Rockhold’s ground game is far better than that of Carmont which was able to stifle Philippou in his last outing and Rockhold has a reach advantage to keep Philippou on the outside on the feet. I think a lot of people overestimate Philippou’s knockout power and I really think Rockhold will be able to showcase his full arsenal of skills here after his disappointing UFC debut against Belfort.Prediction: Luke Rockhold by Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in Round 4
Ben: this is one of the few times a UFC main event is between two fighters coming off a loss, recent events i can remember that also both came in off a loss were Diaz vs Maynard and Shogun vs Sonnen in August. That being said I only see one winner in this fight.
I feel Costa Philippou may be one of the more over rated fighters on the books of the UFC and a loss against Rockhold will take him back to fighting the calibre of fighters I feel he should be fighting.
Luke Rockhold has fought the better opponents and has experience of fighting and winning 5 round battles beating top fighter Jacare and Tim Kennedy back in Strikeforce. I believe on Wednesday night we will see the Rockhold the fans enjoyed watching fight in Strikeforce and he will become the first man to finish Philippou.
Prediction: Rockhold by Submission Round 3
Lorenz Larkin (14-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) vs Brad Tavares (11-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC)
Sam: Larkin looked very impressive in his last fight and I fully expect him to get the win here. His high-level striking should be more than enough to chip away at Brad Tavares to get the decision win, though I don’t think he is a natural finisher. Tavares will be looking to get takedowns early in the round and neutralise Larkin’s striking by keeping him there. The issue with this is that Larkin has very good takedown defence. I don’t expect this fight to be hugely competitive and I can’t see Tavares troubling Larkin.Prediction: Lorenz Larkin by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Ben: This is my big underdog pick. Tavares has been on a roll of late picking up four wins on the roll and now is stepping up the level of opponent. Last time out he continued his decision win streak making that four in a row as he beat Bubba McDaniel without doing too much or being tested himself. It ended up being a bit of a give me fight and this time out he really will be tested.
Larkin comes in to this fight having fought a far greater calibre of fighters and this may well be the difference in this fight. If he can use that experience he may well be able to nullify the game plan of Tavares.
I still believe Larkin should have a perfect record and the judges scored his fight wrongly against Carmont but I don't think it will be his night on Wednesday.
Prediction: Brad Tavares by Split Decision
T.J. Dillashaw (8-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC) vs Mike Easton (13-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC)
Sam: A clash of two of the UFC’s rising Bantamweights who have recently hit ruts in their career. While I think both these fighters are promising, Mike Easton can sometimes be worryingly inactive which is a problem against someone like Dillashaw who likes to push the pace. This has resulted in Easton losing his last two fights by decision. I don’t expect him to break this losing streak on Wednesday. Dillashaw is a high-tempo fighter and – like the whole of Team Alpha Male – is bound to have benefited with more time training under Ludwig.Prediction: T.J Dillashaw by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Ben: I think TJ is a great fighter and he will be looking to bounce back from a very close loss to Asscuncao in Brazil towards the end of last year. TJ has the makings of a potential future champ at 135lbs and with the backing of Team Alpha Male he could go all the way.
Mike Easton is a fun fighter and always comes to put on a show for the fans and I think this fight with TJ will allow him the opportunity and the opponent to do that with. I just feel that as the younger fighter TJ will be able to get the better of these exchanges.
Prediction: T.J Dillashaw by Unanimous Decision
Yoel Romero Palacio (6-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC) vs Derek Brunson (11-2 MMA, 2-0 UFC)
Sam: This is an awful match up for Brunson. Though he won his last fight on the feet, Brunson is normally a wrestler who tends to smother his opponents; he is very unlikely to be able to beat the Olympic wrestler at his own game. I also think Romero has a big advantage on the feet where he is stronger, faster, more creative and generally much more athletic than the somewhat sluggish Brunson. I think Romero should have little trouble continuing his record of TKO wins in this fight.Prediction: Yoel Romero by TKO (strikes) Round 2.
Ben: Romero is an absolute wrecking machines 6 wins, 6 knockouts!! Unfortunately for Brunson I don't see his win/ KO ratio changing as he makes it 7-7 on Wednesday night.
Prediction: Yoel Romero by KO Round 1
John Moraga (13-2 MMA, 2-1 UFC) vs Dustin Ortiz (12-2 MMA, 1-0 UFC)
Sam: In what is in my opinion likely to be the FOTN, two extremely exciting flyweight prospects meet. Though bookies have Moraga down as a reasonable sized favourite I believe this fight could be a lot closer than what we might think. Ortiz looked very impressive in his UFC debut, however Moraga is a big step up in competition for him. Clearly Moraga was not ready for his title shot as he came up short against Demetrius, though credit has to be given to him for surviving till the 5th round. I think he will look to avoid Ortiz’ power shots by taking him down and looking for the submission but will ultimately win a competitive decision.Prediction: John Moraga by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Ben: I see Moraga using his skills which earned him a title shot to win this fight. He has proved in his three fights in the UFC that he can finish fights with wins by KO and submission in the UFC. He also lasted nearly the full 5 rounds against Demetrious Johnson, although it wasn't close for most of the fight. I think in this fight we will see Moraga return to showcase why he got that shot.
Ortiz like Moraga made a big impact on his UFC debut winning by KO, beating Jose Maria Tome. I think though that the step up between Tome and Moraga may be too much although I think it certainly has the ability to be a fun fight for the fans between two flyweights who have knockout power. It's not everyday you hear that about a flyweight bout.
Prediction: John Moraga by Unanimous Decision
Sam Sicilia (12-3 MMA, 2-2 UFC) vs Cole Miller (20-8 MMA, 9-6 UFC)
Sam: For some reason there is an awful lot of hype around Miller at the moment leading to him being the bookies favourite but I must say my lean is Sicilia here. Not only does Sam in my opinion have the better wrestling but he certainly has a huge advantage in hitting power. Historically when Miller has faced heavy handed guys he gets tagged early and – while not being finished – fights too tentatively for the remaining rounds. As long as Sicilia can deal with Miller’s sizeable reach advantage and if he does go for a takedown remains wary of Miller’s superior submission game I believe he’ll get the win here.Prediction: Sam Sicilia by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Ben: If Sam can get inside the big reach advantage that Miller will have then he will be able to get off a few clean shots in the first round. Once he has felt the power of Sicilia he won't want to be involved in that again and back up which is where the wrestling advantage of Sicilia will come in to play as he gets the fight to the ground keeping Miller there while controlling top position with ground and pound to bring home a unanimous decision victory.
The only way I see Cole Miller winning this fight is if he manages to get the fight on the ground and repeat what he did to Andy Ogle where he didn't do much but enough to keep the fight on the floor for two rounds. I just don't see this happening.
Prediction: Sam Sicilia by Unanimous Decision
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